You’d never guess I have
anything to do with maturity.
I just don’t look the part
and that suits me fine.
I’m all about surprise. Oh,

don’t get me wrong, I have
nothing to do with anybody’s
resolve or refusal to grow; I’m just
one of the underrated influences
sent by God, or as some

more fashionable
than I would say, fate.
But I’m the one who does
the job, knows who sent me,
and I’m no accident.

My nickname is Needle, and
my point makes the tip
of Sir Galahad’s lance
seem as blunt as a boxer’s glove.
The space I pierce sometimes

would defy detection
by an electron microscope,
yet I’m often present to
prick one’s balloon the size
of a dirigible. You know from

experience I have a sense
of humor and can be as ironic
as a rainbow . . . my message
as clear as a firehouse bell:
Stop. See what you’re missing.

Look at you
with all your seams
holding you in to
perceived perfection,
when you’re really a
fat lady in a corset
who’s been rolled.

Ok, that may be harsh—
speaking about your physique
that way—but the truth is
you’re caught up endlessly
in a doofuss game where,
more than anything,
you’re hurled like the
regurgitation of a drunk—
one way or another—
a masochist to be sure.

You let yourself be rubbed raw
by a monomaniac at target practice
who’s so fickle he couldn’t care less
when you die of only a dirty face.
He just demands your subservience
of convenience till you’re spent.

Batters want no more than to—
you guessed it—batter you,
and when they’re lucky enough,
from their view,
to do it well,
you become an egg-shaped victim
that ends up in the greasy clutches
of a frivolous collector
and braggart who couldn’t
care less what you’re made of.

Think again about all those times
that you’ve been drilled into the dirt,
stained by the grass,
bunted into ignominy,
tossed around between innings
in brainless ceremony,
and when you show up
at a play of the game
the least bit early or late,
you forfeit acclamation
among the attendees and
divide them between
manic bedlam or abject
depression and expletives.

I can’t help but remind you,
if you’d given more thought
to your shape and exhibited
more patience, you could
have grown into a cannonball
and blown a hole in something.
Even if you’d been only a runt
you could have been a B-B and
blinded somebody in one eye
or at the least hurt a puppy.

Yeah, I know, there’s always
the bean ball, but where’s that
gonna get you with 40,000
people watching?

Not to mention TV.




Copyright© 2009 by Allan J. Cox All rights reserved

She sits in the far corner of the room,
looking across . . .
and her eyes stick to
the edge of the door,
half-open.

She buckles from its hard right angle,
its knife of a crease
reaching from its top
all the way to the floor—
as if it were pressing against
the full length of her body.

This leaves her with a
bloodless, bruiseless wound,
the signs of which
are only inside.

Isn’t this light sentence odd since this door
is heavy as lead, ominous dark chestnut,
thrusts out a door knob that weakens her hand
and closes with the finality of a tight latch—
the kind that clicKs.

Light, you say?
Her wound, like ours,
is mostly of transition—gradual,
but not light.
Oh, how we could bore each other
with what we didn't but should,
have but shouldn't.

Could you believe this leaden door’s edge is her gate to joy?

Close a door.

Open a door.



Copyright© 2009 by Allan J. Cox. All rights reserved

I, Collaboration, go to the field.
When I work with those who sweat,
there’s no spoiling our efforts.
When people shed their false selves,
their fears of being known in a
way not known before
and become spendthrifts with their gifts—
gifts they doubted, but which, because
of me, they now claim boldly,

the clearing appears.
Imagine your task—outreach,
school, business, friends, governing,
health, recreation, communication—
and that you have brought together
a small core of people who want
to do right and bring their

talents to it.
I insist, if I am to be present,
and mark my words—if I’m not, you’ll likely fail—
that we have this understanding:
We not only don’t expect to agree
on any issue that matters, but we won’t

permit that.
Think about it—what’s more absurd than
we gather bright, caring, well-trained,
done-their-homework contributors and
expect them to be of one mind on

issues of significance?
I’m not a concept. I’m to be grasped, in your face,
a little god, even, and just like the Big God
of the Old Testament, I’m jealous.
My devil and yours, too, should we choose
to go to the field together,
is, hear me, do hear me—

consensus.
Oh, come on, I know consensus is a given
in all discussions these days,
but I’m telling you, it’s poison,
lacks courage and insufficient spadework.
Some decisions make themselves because we
can give them time, let them evolve.
Others are made by people who see things

because I’m there.
Lowest common denominator maneuvering
and group-think—real issues getting passed over,
and biting us in the ass later. That’s what

consensus is.
So let me say it straight,
now that you’re moving toward me:
Ripening won’t come without true voice—
or as one sandpapery toiler puts it—
without fierce conversations.
Free-handed, we sow the seed of

the fertile field.
When I’m present, there’s no dumb idea.
But are you ready for the paradox?
Our trust in each other, complete,
so that when your idea is dumb, and a toiler
has no hesitation saying so, you’re not offended,
nor is she next day when she tries to flap

her broken wing.
Here’s the secret: Pouring out your heart—
and anyone doing the same—may not win
the choice at the table’s head this time,
but make no mistake, your pence pushes
clarity forward, a work worthy

of the gods.
Do you want my mantra?
I give it freely, knowing its worth.

Collaboration without consensus
is the soul of organizational truth.

Copyright © 2009 by Allan J. Cox. All rights reserved

I am your root.
I have no name.
I have many names.
I am what makes you real—like no other person.
Here in the dark, I can fool and flood you with imagination.
Who are you meant to be?
What journey awaits you?
Stay with me
and you’ll take within your grasp
three sustaining stones,
satisfied they’re your truth
and please you inside . . .

I am: _________
Life is: _______________
My life purpose is: _____________________

Look, there, at Sam.
He walked with me in the dark,
crafted his plain understanding:

I am a participant
Life is a full arena
My life purpose is to play well with others

Sam is a global treasure,
at home in his work,
gift to his people,
guide to his customers,
friend to cultures.

Long lost,
young years a shambles,
early work life blighted by hurts and betrayals,
two marriages withered and dissolved.

I waited.
The drought nearly killed us
both.
He came to himself—meaning
he came to me,
and said, in time,
“Life lived real
is life lived in surrender.”

I’m not in your life

to be a herald of career,
hobbies,
image,
reputation,
whatever,
whoever,
wherever—but,

the resonance
of the way you live
each day.

“What is rooted is easy to nourish,”
says the Tao Te Ching.

Be attentive.
What is your life’s love?
What does it want from you?
Surrender to it.
Nourish yourself in me.




Copyright © 2009 by Allan J. Cox. All rights reserved.

This monthly blog, now a bit over a year old, seldom generates responses. I didn’t plan it this way, and I don’t know in any depth why this so, but for now that’s the way it is. However, you might want to scroll down to last month’s blog, “Future Shock Unbridled,” This one did prompt responses, though not through the format provided on the blog itself. They came from people I know personally, who emailed me directly, and from friends on Facebook. Many felt moved by the way our future is crashing in on us, but others wanted to know what I meant by “eternal truths,” with which I concluded the blog. They seemed to be saying, “Give us examples!”

My point was that the unbridled future is not capable of scuttling our eternal truths, and they have given us, up till now, largely unarticulated strength. Here’s a run-through of some eternal truths that occur to me rather quickly. There are many more, and you may have some suggestions of your own. If you’d like to share them, the blog format itself would bring them to the attention of many more than if you contact me directly. Either way, I’d love to hear your thoughts. They can become your articulated strength and your wand over troubled waters for the years ahead. 2009 is the first one. Happy New Year!

1. Ultimately, seeking power fails.

2. Let all illusions go.

3. Yielding is the way of wisdom.

4. The right thing is the appropriate thing.

5. Everyone needs to go through dark nights of the soul.

6. Impatient, you can ruin what almost arrived.

7. Each is one with the universe.

8. If we don’t forgive our enemies, we become them.

9. The future causes the present.

10. There are times to trust people who aren’t trustworthy.

11. Learn from the wise and step out on your own.

12. Life lived too intensely is life lived poorly.

13. “Let it happen” wears better than “Make it happen.”

14. Take your stand, then be quiet.

15. A flipped penny can shape alternatives as much as any larger coin.

16. If you want to know what a person (including yourself) is committed to, don’t listen to their words; watch their feet.

17. Geography is destiny.

18. If God, the All, has always existed and always will, then we are participating in eternity right now.

19. The shortest distance between two points is a straight line, but attentive meandering often brings superior results.

20. Collaboration without consensus is the soul of superior performance.

21. It’s up and down on the Merry-Go-Round.

22. Small decisions confirm a larger agenda.

23. Nothing has to be possible. Anything can be possible.

24. Truly great ideas don’t come of age without debate.

25. Good intentions are a substitute for performance.

26. Permanence is proof of adaptability, so far.

27. One of life’s most serviceable questions is “Says who?”

28. A value is what we live by, not merely profess, whether it’s positive or negative.


All the best,

Allan

Thank you very much to all of you who participated and helped me on the YouTube vs. Mainstream Journalism: Videoblogging Ethics project. Your participation was more than I can ask for.

I apologize for taking so long to come out with the executive summary because my supervisor and I took pains to make sure that your views have been represented accurately. I know I promised September 2008.

I received 379 responses for the survey from June to October 2008. This is more than the required number of respondents for a study to be valid.

I presented the first part of this study at the International Communication Association (ICA) conference in Canada in May 2008 and I have been invited to present the full study in another international conference at the University of Melbourne in Australia this July 2009. The study is also being considered for a book chapter to be published next year in the US.

The summary is available in pdf for your reference. I organized the findings using tables and figures for your reading convenience. The whole study is comprised of almost 100 pages with the complete and comprehensive findings.

Should you be interested in seeing the results, kindly e-mail me for a copy and I will send one to you right away.

If you wish to see the whole study, I can also send you the whole thing.

Again, thank you for your help. This human rights endeavor doesn't end with this project. I'm working on other similar projects to advance the cause and I hope you'll stand by these efforts as you have so kindly done so.

In the past week, a classmate of mine from high school sent me this video:

DidYouKnow300.wmv

I don’t know how much this has made the rounds; you may have seen it. Also, this kind of thing—shock value info—is something we’ve grown used to, but the medium itself has taught us that the very last one we saw, that’s much like this one, is now out of date!

This one concludes with the question,

What Does It All Mean?

When I forwarded this video to a group of clients and personal friends, a savvy client got back quickly to me with his answer: We need to staff out IT departments with 13 year old Indians. This reminded me immediately of a meeting in which I sat about 15 years ago and listened to the CEO of the 4-H Foundation state that their organization had just completed and posted their new website and the project was headed by a 13-year-old member. How about it? That CEO, about age 55, was way ahead of his time!

I’m immodestly going to offer my responses to this question, too, but before you read them, if you haven’t seen the video, please watch it now. It comes fast and powerfully.

***************************************

OK, here’s a smattering of my reactions to what I saw. . .

--All my life, I’ve heard (and believe), as do you, we use only a small fraction of our mental capacity. We’re up to handling “information overload” in this exponential era a whole lot more than we realize.

--You’d better be hard-nosed about what you’re going to attempt to process because much of this information is duplication—new words and presentations for what you already know. Not everybody is creative. Some are just saying the same thing as the next guy. And don’t forget: A lot of people are answering questions nobody’s asking. Last of all, you’ll want, habitually and simply, to ask, Says who?

--You’re being exposed to more, which means you’re also forgetting more. Since half-way through college, what you learned in the first half is obsolete, forgetting can’t be all bad.

--Bermuda is #1 in broadband internet penetration? How in the hell did that happen? We better find out fast. Biggest isn’t always best.

--We have 5X more words in our language than in Shakespeare’s day? For sure, less is more. That man’s works were relatively short, too. He said it all in small space.

--Facebook reached a market penetration of 50 million people in two years? Be a part of that—at least until a better deal comes along.

--India has more honors kids than we have kids. Well, no wonder . . . look at that birth rate. Gotta be the bell-shaped curve!

--If you’re one in a million here, you’d be one of 1300 such in China. I’d rather be that here, and so would many of them. Good supply of brilliance is coming out of China, and they speak English, too. Welcome aboard. And India, well, maybe them as well. I know a fabulous Indian physician whose five-syllable last name is lyrical. With him involved, health-care for his patients is positively euphonious. I guess we better get it right on immigration.

--Read the New York Times front-to-back for a week and you’ll be exposed to more information that an 18th Century citizen was in a lifetime. I don’t know about you, but I just don’t learn that fast. And what about so many of those Times half-brained editorials? Talk about misguidance . . . You have to counter that with those from The Wall Street Journal. You have to move adroitly between left of Stuart Smalley and right of Attila the Hun. If you really want to sample good journalism, look up Andrew Sullivan’s treatment of Obama in the December, 2007 issue of the Atlantic Monthly. That piece was prescient.

--By 2049 a $1,000 computer will have a greater mental capacity than all humankind together. Don’t worry; by then, many of us will have had close encounters of the third kind and be models to the rest of the world and perhaps a few other planets to boot.

--Job changes, career mobility and variation of organizational human makeup taking place at breakneck speed? Relax. Somebody’s minding the store, and statistically speaking, she didn’t arrive yesterday. No kidding. That’s a number you can (pardon the expression) bank on.

--All those text messages? Do you have something better to do while waiting for that slow elevator? You know, reverse cultural lag? The people are out in front of the technology. Hell, nothin’s perfect.

--Hey, what really gets my attention is preparing for jobs that don’t exist and dealing with problems we don’t even know are going to be problems. Bring it on, man. Now, that’s exciting!

--Finally, the people who really know how to live into the future live mostly by the eternal truths. Oh yeah, they’re still with us and not going anywhere.

All the best,

Allan

When I first meet with a CEO to begin work with her or him as coach, I make it clear that the emphasis of my work is on behavior. Let’s understand that I’m fully cognizant this is a very talented and accomplished person who’s my new partner in a wonderful undertaking. To be in this position as CEO they already are in the 99th percentile of the executive population.

But I still see them as people whose final topping out on claiming their singularity, in other words, their true value proposition to the world, is work they have yet to do. I look at a CEO and say, “You’re a 7/8th man and we’re here for you to claim that final 8th. I doubt even you know what a phenomenal impact it will have on this company when you fully own yourself and go that final distance.”

If this idea resonates for you and you wonder how you might put the pieces together in the human puzzle and claim your final 8th, whether you have your eye on the top job in a corporation or are curriculum director of a large urban high school, I have some ideas to share with you.

A couple of weeks ago I addressed the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Entrepreneurial Roundtable and covered this topic. A link to the video of that presentation appears below. Of course, I’d be delighted if you find it useful.

http://yourinnerceo.blogspot.com

All the best,

Allan

When I first meet with a CEO to begin work with her or him as coach, I make it clear that the emphasis of my work is on behavior. Let’s understand that I’m fully cognizant this is a very talented and accomplished person who’s my new partner in a wonderful undertaking. To be in this position as CEO they already are in the 99th percentile of the executive population.

But I still see them as people whose final topping out on claiming their singularity, in other words, their true value proposition to the world, is work they have yet to do. I look at a CEO and say, “You’re a 7/8th man and we’re here for you to claim that final 8th. I doubt even you know what a phenomenal impact it will have on this company when you fully own yourself and go that final distance.”

If this idea resonates for you and you wonder how you might put the pieces together in the human puzzle and claim your final 8th, whether you have your eye on the top job in a corporation or are curriculum director of a large urban high school, I have some ideas to share with you.

A couple of weeks ago I addressed the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Entrepreneurial Roundtable and covered this topic. A video of that presentation appears above. Of course, I’d be delighted if you find it useful.

Allan

Determination, stamina, devoting your time and energy to realizing a dream, which you are not certain to reach. Talent is not enough in itself, still hardwork in itself has its reward anyways for athletes who choose to follow the long path to success, as they can learn many things about themselves and others through preparing for various competitions including the Olympic Games. However, the most wonderful feeling is when an athlete can be ’there’ and is able to show the world and particularly themselves that they are the best of all.


There is a wonderful song called ’Olympic Dreams’ by a German band called Mr. President. I would like to quote here the lyrics and you can listen to the song at this link on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AClVcmBvxGE&feature=related
Listen to it, because it is one of the greatest of all and expresses the spirit of the Games so truly!! :)

Olympic Dreams

No day before
so full of deep devotion
and in my heart
I feel a strong emotion
Olympic fire
wakes my desire
to join in the games of the world

So far away the day's of pain and sorrow
enjoy the games
there's a new tomorrow
let's share the story
of fame and glory
the party of friendship for all

Refrain:

Goin' for Olympic dreams
Goin' for the gold
Goin' for the medals
That I never thought I'd hold
Flyin' on the wings of freedom
reachin' for the sky
the Olympic dreams will never die

The time has come just do it now or never
a star is born
and it will last forever
congratulations
and celebrations
it's only one moment in time

Refrain

The winner really takes it all
no loser will be standing small
so come on let us celebrate together

Refrain

(performed and written by Mr. President and Nino de Angelo)


I feel very proud of the athletes of my country who reached the 21st place of the overall medal standings for Hungary in Beijing.

Gold Medallists:

Canoe/Kayak - Flatwater
Canoe Single (C1) 1000m Men VAJDA Attila Sandor
Kayak Double (K2) 500m Women KOVACS Katalin, JANIC Natasa


Water Polo Men
SZECSI Zoltan, VARGA Tamas, MADARAS Norbert, VARGA Denes Andor, KASAS Tamas, HOSNYANSZKY Norbert, KISS Gergely, BENEDEK Tibor, VARGA Daniel Rudolf, BIROS Peter, KIS Gabor, MOLNAR Tamas, GERGELY Istvan


Silver medallists:


Canoe/Kayak - Flatwater
Kayak Four (K4) 500m Women KOVACS Katalin, SZABO Gabriella Timea, KOZAK Danuta, JANIC Natasa

Wrestling Men's Greco-Roman 84 kg FODOR Zoltan

Swimming Men's 200m Butterfly CSEH Laszlo
Men's 200m Individual Medley CSEH Laszlo
Men's 400m Individual Medley CSEH Laszlo


Bronze medallists:

Canoe/Kayak - Flatwater Canoe Double (C2) 1000m Men KOZMANN Gyorgy, KISS Tamas

Fencing Women's Individual Epee MINCZA-NEBALD Ildiko

In the early 70s I read an intriguing book, The Natural Depth in Man, by distinguished psychologist Wilson Van Dusen (1923-2005). In one of its chapters Van Dusen strongly espouses the benefits of meditation with these words: “Those who have spent even twenty minutes a day meditating over a period of months are visibly different. They seem calmer, integrated, all together. It is as though they collected themselves and they remain collected.”

The whole book was a powerful one for me, but especially this particular observation, though it did not have the immediate effect on me that I became a meditator. Yet from memory alone, when I decided to write this blog, I went to my office and pulled out the disintegrating paperback for the exact wording I’ve just shared with you. It’s never been far away from my thoughts..

I don’t know if I’m a true mediator today, but for many years now, I have each morning entered my day within a contemplative framework. I read a passage from the Tao Te Ching, sometimes a Psalm, sometimes a few lines from one of a wide range of favorite poets, and always a reading from a volume I’m about to describe for you that’s dear to my heart. Does this make me a better person? I can’t answer that but can tell you I wouldn’t dream of starting my days any other way.

The little book I speak of is All the Days of My Life . . . a yearbook of found sentences for the human journey. It’s a spiral bound book of a sentence or two for each day of the year, following the seasons and months. It’s published by the Iona Center in Healdsburg, California, a not-for-profit formed by the husband-wife team of Marvin and Nancy Hiles, who in turn are the authors-editors of this and other offerings. You can buy it from Iona for $15.00 book, shipping $2.36, tax for CA residents $1.09.

Until now, as with the Tao Te Ching, when I complete the book, I simply start over because its messages are always worth re-visiting, and have new meanings for me each time I encounter them.

But I have additional good news if my thoughts in this blog have any appeal for you. Marv and Nancy have just completed a new volume that will be available for shipping as of September 1. This one is a little more ambitious apparently and is titled An Almanac for the Soul. It’s a 300 page, spiral bound volume that contains essays, breath prayers, author bios, illustrations and photos, and an excerpt for each day of the year from a wide variety of sources—literature, poetry, journals, and so on, offering life’s vitality from the perspective of contemplation.

An Almanac for the Soul is available only from Iona Center for $25.95. For one copy please add $4.80 for shipping via USPS Priority Mail (1-3 day delivery) or $2.58 for Media Mail (5-9 days delivery). Tax for CA residents is $1.88. Please contact Iona for special orders and international shipping. I’ve already ordered my copy and look forward to it as the companion and supplement for All the Days of My Life.

If you have any questions and need more information, just contact Marv and Nancy directly. They’re fabulous people and would take delight in hearing from you..

Marv and Nancy Hiles
Iona Center
PO Box 1528
Healdsburg CA 95448
(707) 431-7426
ionacenter@comcast.net nancyhiles@comcast.net marvsam@comcast.net

Scandal in Africa
By Joshua Hammer


With his ruthless seizure of power in the June 27 runoff election in Zimbabwe, following a well-organized campaign to intimidate and murder members of the opposition, Robert Mugabe joined Myanmar's military junta at the top of the list of the world's most despised dictators. Both the Burmese generals and Mugabe's inner circle have enriched themselves while reducing their people to near starvation. They have jailed, tortured, and killed supporters of democracy, and shrugged off years of international condemnation. Moreover, unlike Myanmar's secretive regime, Mugabe and the cabal that supports him have seemed to enjoy flaunting their contempt for democracy and their easy embrace of violence.

That cabal is led by hard-line members of the Zimbabwean military and a handful of cabinet officials who served alongside Mugabe in the independence war of the 1970s. They include the commander in chief of Zimbabwe's armed forces, General Constantine Chiwenga, and Emerson Mnangagwa, an heir apparent to Mugabe who, as minister of national security in 1983, allegedly oversaw the massacre of thousands of political opponents in Matabeleland. "He is a man with the capacity to be more vicious than Mugabe," I was told by University of Zimbabwe political analyst John Makumbe.

Mnangagwa was one of the principal orchestrators of the campaign of violence and intimidation against the opposition launched in April—known as CIBD, or Coercion, Intimidation, Beating, and Displacement. (According to recent reports, over a hundred opposition supporters have been killed and more than 200,000 displaced.) And Mugabe, after initially conceding defeat in private and considering resignation or negotiation, quickly embraced the hard-liners' position. "We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X," Mugabe declared in the midst of his bloody campaign last month, rejecting any pretense of a legitimate election. "How can a ballpoint pen fight with a gun?"


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The dictator's spokesman, George Charamba, told the press that Western governments who criticized Zimbabwe's election could "go hang a thousand times. They have no basis, they have no claim on Zimbabwe politics at all." That kind of thumb-in-the-eye defiance has intensified the world's sense of impotence and prompted a hard look at the question: Is there anything that can be done now to get rid of Robert Mugabe?

The days following Mugabe's ghastly recoronation ceremony saw the first test of international resolve. Leaders from Gordon Brown of Great Britain to Kenya's new prime minister Raila Odinga assailed the state-sponsored violence that forced Morgan Tsvangirai to take refuge in the Dutch embassy and withdraw from the race, leaving Mugabe the sole candidate. "What is happening in Zimbabwe is a shame and an embarrassment to Africa in the eyes of the international community and should be denounced," Odinga said, in perhaps the strongest words of condemnation ever uttered against Mugabe by a fellow African leader.[*]

Former South African president Nelson Mandela broke with Thabo Mbeki's long and shameful silence on the issue to condemn, during a major public appearance in London, Zimbabwe's "failure of leadership." George W. Bush tightened a travel ban that already targets 250 people and companies associated with Mugabe's illegitimate regime, and forbids Americans to do business with them. Canada ordered new travel restrictions on senior Zimbabwean officials and their families and barred Zimbabwean-registered aircraft from Canadian air space. In addition, the US and Great Britain pressed the UN Security Council to freeze Mugabe's assets along with those of eleven senior Mugabe officials, ban them from traveling outside the country, and impose an international arms embargo. But the US resolution calling for sanctions was vetoed by Russia and China on July 12.

It's hard to imagine, however, that any of these initiatives would make much difference. Targeted sanctions have been in effect against the Mugabe gang for nearly a decade—when the dictator launched his violent land grab against white-owned farms and sent the economy into free fall—and, at best, they've proven a minor inconvenience. (Most existing travel bans don't include the families of Mugabe's inner circle; as a result, some of the most ruthless suppressors of democracy send their sons and daughters to elite schools in the United States and Europe.) While it's true that a Security Council–ordered asset freeze and travel ban would have hurt them more, the recent dual veto showed that getting the UN to speak in one voice against dictatorships, no matter how heinous, has almost always been nearly impossible.

As in the case of Myanmar, China had a key part as Zimbabwe's protector against the US effort to pass a Security Council resolution punishing the dictatorship. Russia led the veto of sanctions, claiming that Mugabe's election thuggery was an internal matter beyond the scope of the United Nations. But China, the biggest investor in Zimbabwe, with huge stakes in its mines and lucrative deals to provide weapons and ammunition to its military, happily followed Russia's lead. Meanwhile, South Africa under President Mbeki has provided Mugabe's regime with diplomatic cover, as well as fuel, power, and international bank accounts for his inner circle—and that shows no signs of changing now.


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The difficulty of getting the world to act together became particularly clear at the African Union Summit in Sharm el-Sheik on June 30, the day after Mugabe's swearing-in ceremony. South Africa's Anglican Archbishop Desmond Tutu and other world figures had called on African leaders to refuse to recognize Mugabe when he showed up at the meeting. But there was no such repudiation, only a tepid collective call for "dialogue" between Tsvangirai and Mugabe and for the formation of a national unity government—as if both men had a legitimate claim to victory. Ignoring the systematic murders, beatings, and displacements of thousands of supporters of Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change, an AU observer statement said only that "the vote fell short of the African Union's standards of democratic elections."

Again, Mugabe's chief protector, South African President Mbeki, hid his support for the dictator behind another call for African solutions, rejecting a European Union position that it would accept only a Zimbabwean government led by Tsvangirai. "The result that comes out of that process of dialogue must be a result that is agreed by the Zimbabweans," Mbeki said on the radio, ignoring the fact that a majority of Zimbabweans had already voted to remove Mugabe—only to be brutalized by a regime that had no intention of giving up power.

Not everybody views the AU conference as a bleak development. The willingness of several African leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh and elsewhere on the continent to condemn Mugabe marked a sharp break from the past, insists David Coltart, a Zimbabwean opposition leader and one of two white members of Parliament. "Even ten years ago what Mugabe has done would be a non-event," Coltart said. "Now a significant and increasing number of African leaders are embarrassed, even angry, about his behavior." Such waning in his support is unlikely to affect Mugabe or his inner circle immediately (even Mandela's criticism was brushed off last week as having been manipulated by the West). But it could, Coltart argued, eventually have a significant effect. "Mugabe has been able to keep his supporters going because of their belief that Africa is on their side and they will ultimately prevail," he told me. "The moment they realize that that is no longer the case Mugabe [or his cabal] will weaken dramatically."

But what hope is there for serious change in the short term? The chances of a Kenya-style sharing of power by Mugabe's ruling clique and the Movement for Democratic Change seem slim. Mugabe and the Joint Operations Command—the military hard-liners that surround him—see little reason to negotiate, believing, probably correctly, that there is little the world can do to stop him. There are some dissenters within the upper echelons of the ruling party: Vice President Joyce Mujuru, for example, a former independence fighter known by the nom de guerre Comrade Spillblood, reportedly expressed misgivings in cabinet meetings about the campaign of violence, as did some lower-ranking generals and colonels. Predictably, the hard-liners won out.

Archbishop Desmond Tutu last week raised the possibility of military intervention to unseat Mugabe, calling for a deployment of UN peacekeepers or AU forces. But barring a Rwanda- or Darfur-style catastrophe on the ground, that clearly won't happen. With inflation running at one thousand percent per day, and mass starvation and state-sponsored violence occurring across the country, Zimbabwe could at some point implode, and the world's powerful nations will have to reconsider what can be done. But Zimbabwe will probably fade from the headlines as world attention shifts to the next crisis. The atrocities of the last two months will be transformed into the quiet terror that Mugabe's citizens have come to expect from their government.

—July 17, 2008